Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Cl ose)
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.2
83
35,658
U.S. stocks were slightly positive Friday morning as traders assessed a relatively
Nifty
0.2
23
10,773
upbeat jobs report. Biogen's stock skyorocked after positive results from a study of its
Mid Cap
0.6
86
15,392
Alzheimer's treatment. The Dow Jones was increased by 0.4% to 24,456 and the
Small Cap
0.5
73
16,060
Nasdaq rose by 1.3% to 7,688.
Bankex
0.0
14
29,382
U.K. stocks were little changed in cautious trade on Friday after American tariffs on
34 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports took effect and China vowed to make a
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Cl ose)
necessary counterattack in equal measure. The benchmark FTSE 100 inched up by
0.4% to 7,609.
Dow Jones
0.4
99
24,456
Nasdaq
1.3
101
7,688
On domestic front, Indian shares rose during the last trading session as investors
FTSE
0.4
30
7,609
responded with calm to the U.S. tariffs on 34 billion dollars worth of Chinese
Nikkei
1.1
241
21,788
imports that took effect after midnight Thursday. The BSE Sensex was up by 0.2% to
35,658.
Hang Seng
0.5
134
28,316
Shanghai Com
0.5
13
2,747
News Analysis
Banks finalise inter-creditor agreement to fast track NPA resolution
A dvances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,460
1,039
Declines
1,201
749
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
134
84
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Volumes (` Cr)
Refer Pg5 onwards
BSE
2,405
Top Picks
NSE
28,711
C MP
Target
U psi de
C ompany
Sector
R ating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
652
867
33.0
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Ne t
Mtd
Ytd
Dewan Housi ng Finance
Financials
Buy
618
720
16.5
FII
251
496
-4,343
Parag Milk F oods
Others
Buy
310
410
32.1
*MFs
2,353
8,907
68,279
Bata India
Others
Buy
825
896
83.0
KEI Industrie s
Capital Goods
Buy
412
589
43.0
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
STRTECH
290
8.9
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
C onsensus
BEL
111
8.4
D ate
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
ADANIPOWER
17
6.7
Jul 10, 2018
US
Unnemployment rate
4.00
3.80
JISLJALEQS
81
6.3
Jul 10, 2018
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
1.80
1.90
ENGINERSIN
129
6.0
Jul 11, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
14.85
Jul 12, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
1.00
Jul 12, 2018
US
Initial Jobless claims
231.00
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Events on Pg7
HATHWAY
18
-11.2
DEN
62
-7.4
VAKRANGEE
52
-5.0
KWALITY
19
-4.8
AVANTI
476
-3.8
As on July 06 2018
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
News Analysis
Banks finalise inter-creditor agreement to fast track NPA resolution
With a view to fast track NPA resolution, bankers on Thursday finalised the inter-
creditor agreement (ICA) framework that envisages effective communication
among lenders.
The ICA mechanism is expected to be enforced this month itself.
The non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking sector crossed Rs 9 trillion at
end-December 2017 and the RBI has warned of further worsening of the situation.
The agreement, a part of Project Sashakt, will be taken to boards of
respective banks and would be cleared in couple of days, said PNB non-executive
chairman Sunil Mehta after the meeting.
The meeting called by Indian Banks Association was also attended
by Finance Minister Piyush Goyal, who had accepted the report of the Sunil Mehta
Committee earlier this week.
The agreement, a part of Project Sashakt, will be taken to boards of
respective banks and would be cleared in couple of days, said PNB non-executive
chairman Sunil Mehta after the meeting. The meeting called
by Indian Banks Association was also attended by Finance Minister Piyush Goyal,
who had accepted the report of the Sunil Mehta Committee earlier this week
Economic and Political News
Corporate News
ONGC postpones KG basin project to Dec 2019; oil production by March
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which i s out paci ng
Blue Star
6,268
652
867
33.0
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer se gme nt, the company has increased its
Dewan Housi ng Finance
19,383
618
720
16.5
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity i s immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,73,652
270
416
54.1
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which w ould
help to re port better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industrie s
3,228
412
589
43.0
B2C sales and hi gher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,788
313
475
51.6
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,380
508
851
67.6
growth going ahe ad. Stock currently trade s at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,81,079
9,305
10,619
14.1
improve the company’s sale s volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,887
350
655
87.0
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improve ment
Third largest brand play in luggage se gment
Increase d product offerings and i mproving
Safari Industries
1,375
617
720
16.7
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
busine ss. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financi alisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
27,946
127
218
71.7
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companie s in India cre ated strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk F oods
2,611
310
410
32.1
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth i n online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,694
745
1,016
36.3
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improve ment.
HDFC Bank maintained its ste ady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,50,532
2,114
2,315
9.5
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earni ng
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launche s and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,12,788
924
1,050
15.3
strong growth in Tractors se gment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improveme nt in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturi ng space in Indi a with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprise s
2,793
1,013
1,230
22.3
provider for the major brands i n the RAC industry
and currently serve s eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the l argest footwear retailer in Indi a,
offering footwear, acce ssories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
Bata India
10,634
830
948
13.5
~16% to ~` 3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to new product launches, higher number of store s
addition and focus on women ’s high growth
segment and margin i mprovement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
29,532
1,110
1,764
58.9
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing power
and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over FY18-
20E, supported by decline in cre dit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-F Y20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
20,036
215
350
65.1
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improve ment.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indi an
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipme nt.
GMM is expecte d to cross CAGR
15%+ in
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,178
800
1,020
27.6
revenue over the next few years mainly led by
uptick in de mand from user industries and it is
also expecting to increase its share of non -GL
busine ss to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indi an
Pharmaceutical companies, is well pl aced to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus
on achieving growth through productivity.
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical s
35,327
615
780
26.8
Aurobindo will report net revenue & net profit
CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp. during FY2018-
20E. Valuati ons are cheap V/s its peers and own
fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees income.
Yes Bank
80,423
352
418
19.7
We expect YES to grow its advance much higher
than industry and improve ment in asset quality to
support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR of
35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA (1.2%
RBL Bank
23,730
564
670
18.8
FY18) to expand led by margin expansion and
lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,537
266
360
35.4
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,449
1,641
2,178
32.7
healthy de mand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improve ment in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipme nts like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,607
2,028
2,500
23.3
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and me dium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,707
221
395
78.9
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and di stribution network
L&T Fin’s new management i s on track to achieve
L&T Finance Hol ding
29,906
150
210
40.1
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bl oomberg Data
D ate
Time
C ountry
Event Description
Unit
Period
L ast Reporte d
E stimate d
Jul 10, 2018
6:00 PM US
Unnemployment rate
%
Jun
4.00
3.80
7:00 AM China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jun
1.80
1.90
Jul 11, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jun
14.85
Jul 12, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jun
1.00
6:00 PM US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 7
231.00
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
20.18
5:30 PM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
May
4.90
5.90
6:00 PM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jun
0.20
0.20
Jul 13, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
12.60
10.40
Jul 16, 2018
7:30 AM China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
6.80
6.50
12: 00 PM India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.43
7:30 AM China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
6.80
6.70
Jul 17, 2018
6:45 PM US
Industrial Production
%
Jun
(0.09)
2:00 PM UK
Joble ss claims change
% Change
Jun
(7.70)
Jul 18, 2018
6:00 PM US
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
1,301.00
6:00 PM US
Housi ng Starts
Thousands
Jun
1,350.00
2:30 PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jun F
2.00
2:00 PM UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.40
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
7:30 PM US
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PM Germany
PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
1:00 PM Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Jul 25, 2018
7:30 PM US
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
Jul 26, 2018
5:15 PM Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
8.5
10.0
9.0
9.1
7.3
7.5
8.0
7.0
9.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
7.0
6.0
6.8
4.8
4.6
4.9
7.0
6.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
5.6
4.0
6.0
3.0
1.8
5.0
2.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.3)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
3.50
0.0
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
C ountry
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
74,553
(2.1)
(12.5)
18.5
Russia
Micex
4,484
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
10,750
0.8
4.3
11.8
China
Shanghai Composite
2,734
(11.8)
(13.1)
(13.4)
South Africa
Top 40
51,194
(1.8)
3.5
10.5
Mexico
Mexbol
48,563
7.2
1.1
(3.1)
Indonesia
LQ45
906
(6.1)
(12.8)
(8.1)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,691
(3.7)
(8.9)
(4.9)
Thailand
SET 50
1,055
(7.2)
(9.5)
6.7
USA
Dow Jones
24,357
(1.8)
(0.7)
13.7
UK
FTSE
7,603
(1.1)
8.1
3.4
Japan
Nikkei
21,547
(4.4)
1.2
7.0
Germany
DAX
12,464
(3.0)
1.1
0.5
France
CAC
5,366
(1.9)
1.8
2.5
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
D ate Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Curre nt Status
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprise s
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Hol ding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk F oods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk F oods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/ 04/ 2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
Open
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/ 05/ 2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/ 01/ 2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/ 05/ 2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/ 01/ 2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/ 02/ 2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/ 2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/ 2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologie s Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/ 12/ 2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Hol dings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/ 8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/ 03/ 2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industrie s
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
D ate Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Curre nt Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industrie s
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/ 05/ 2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/ 02/ 2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/ 05/ 2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/ 2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 09, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India
Limited,Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Particip ant with
CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is
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